• The global economy will continue to recover in 2022
  • 2022 growth carried by private sector
  • Inflation temporarily above central bank targets
  • Equities remain most attractive asset class
  • Erste AM funds record strong increase in volume

Austrian Erste Asset Management (Erste AM), the capital investment company of Erste Group Bank AG, is optimistic about the economic recovery in the wake of the global pandemic continuing in 2022. While the economy will not grow at the same speed any more as in 2021, the expected growth rate of 5% is still clearly above potential, as Erste AM Chief Investment Officer Gerold Permoser explains at the press conference for the capital market outlook 2022.

Recovery carried by private sector

“In comparison with earlier recessions, we have managed to exit the crisis rather quickly this time. The crucial factor for this to happen was the monetary and fiscal policy of the central banks and governments, which had been supporting the strong recovery of the economy and the labour market throughout 2021”, stresses Permoser.

The recovery would continue in 2022 and was driven by the private sector, as Permoser stated at the press conference. Consumer demand would remain high. The stocking-up of inventories, which were empty after the pandemic, would have a positive impact on demand in 2022.

While there was the risk of setbacks caused by further covid waves, it was less significant than in the past. Another risk associated with the optimistic forecast was based on the sustainably high inflation rates, which in turn put pressure on the central banks to tighten the monetary policy sooner than currently expected.

The strong increase in prices was mainly due the special situation caused by shortages in commodities, semiconductors, and transport costs. This situation should be resolved in the first half of 2022.

China with new growth strategy

China is a lynchpin to the continued economic recovery. The tightly managed economic power is restructuring its economy, focusing on the strengthening of its domestic economy and of its independence.

This is to be achieved by concentrating on key industries, financial and real estate market stability, mega investments in decarbonisation, and the levelling of the high-income inequality. While this re-orientation will eat into China’s growth rates in the short run, it will be positive for its long-term growth prospects.

Thus, China can remain the engine of the global economy, but only those sectors will benefit that are linked to consumption (as opposed to the real estate or the export sector).

Change of monetary course

As the recovery progresses and the private sector will start assuming a more important role, the central banks will be gradually tapering the extremely supportive monetary policy they have been pursuing over the past two years.

The currently high inflation rates, in particular, have put accelerated pressure on the central banks, much more so than at the beginning of the year. In the emerging markets, where inflation expectations are less solidly anchored and central banks are often less politically independent, many central banks have been forced to tighten the monetary reins.

Share price increases 2021 mainly due to earnings growth

In 2021, company earnings have recovered more quickly and significantly than in comparable phases in the recent past. As a result, company valuations have not changed much year-on-year despite the increase in share prices.

Equities will therefore continue to play an important part in the Erste AM portfolios. Permoser: “We expect earnings to continue rising in 2022, but at a lower momentum than we have seen this year.” He envisages growth rates around nominal economic growth (i.e. 5 to 10% in the developed world). This means equity investors should be able to expect gains to that extent, not the least as there are very few alternatives to equities. Government bonds remain unattractive due to interest rate risk. “And we expect yields to increase in a recovery scenario.”

Assets under management of Erste Asset Management have recorded strong growth in 2021

The upward trend of the volume of assets managed by Erste Asset Management has remained intact in 2021. At the end of October, total assets under management amounted to EUR 74.7bn, i.e. they were up 9.5% relative to 2020.

The volumes in the various investment segments are relatively balanced: mixed funds account for the largest share (EUR 20.5bn), followed by fixed income funds (EUR 19.7bn), and equity funds (EUR 16.5bn). “Funds that provide full-scale asset management even at low initial investment amounts, sustainable funds, and a mainstay of our portfolio, real estate funds, have contributed significantly to this growth,” says Heinz Bednar, CEO Erste AM.

Net assets under management have increased by EUR 3.3bn in the year to date. Erste AM recorded the biggest increases in Austria, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia. Sustainable investment funds, at EUR 14.3bn of asset under management, have become even more important.

The EU Regulation on sustainability‐related disclosures in the financial services sector has accelerated this process. In the long run, investments in climate and environmental protection will be growing on the back of the CO2 reduction targets stipulated in the climate conference (e.g. exit from coal), the aggressive plans by the new German government towards decarbonisation, and the eco-social tax reform in Austria. “We expect these examples to form precedents across Europe”.

Bednar continues to regard sustainable funds as those with good opportunities. Among them are the global equity fund ERSTE RESPONSIBLE STOCK GLOBAL, the green themed equity fund ERSTE GREEN INVEST, the fund geared towards inflation protection, ERSTE REAL ASSETS, and the umbrella fund for long-term capital building, YOU INVEST advanced, with a mix of different asset classes that can be switched dynamically.

For further information, please visit www.erste-am.at.

For enquiries, please contact:
Communications & Digital Marketing

Paul Severin
Tel. +43 (0)50 100 19982
E-Mail: paul.severin@erste-am.com

Erste Asset Management GmbH

Am Belvedere 1, A-1100 Wien
Sitz Wien, FN 102018b,
Handelsgericht Wien, DVR 0468703



This document is an advertisement. Please refer to the prospectus of the UCITS or to the Information for Investors pursuant to Art 21 AIFMG of the alternative investment fund and the Key Information Document before making any final investment decisions. All data is sourced from Erste Asset Management GmbH, unless indicated otherwise. Our languages of communication are German and English.

The prospectus for UCITS (including any amendments) is published in accordance with the provisions of the InvFG 2011 in the currently amended version. Information for Investors pursuant to Art 21 AIFMG is prepared for the alternative investment funds (AIF) administered by Erste Asset Management GmbH pursuant to the provisions of the AIFMG in connection with the InvFG 2011.

The fund prospectus, Information for Investors pursuant to Art 21 AIFMG, and the Key Information Document can be viewed in their latest versions at the  website www.erste-am.com within the section mandatory publications  or obtained in their latest versions free of charge from the domicile of the management company and the domicile of the custodian bank. The exact date of the most recent publication of the fund prospectus, the languages in which the Key Information Document is available, and any additional locations where the documents can be obtained can be viewed on the website www.erste-am.com. A summary of investor rights is available in German and English on the website www.erste-am.com/investor-rights as well as at the domicile of the management company.

The management company can decide to revoke the arrangements it has made for the distribution of unit certificates abroad, taking into account the regulatory requirements.

Detailed information on the risks potentially associated with the investment can be found in the fund prospectus or Information for investors pursuant to Art 21 AIFMG of the respective fund. If the fund currency is a currency other than the investor's home currency, changes in the corresponding exchange rate may have a positive or negative impact on the value of his investment and the amount of the costs incurred in the fund - converted into his home currency.

Our analyses and conclusions are general in nature and do not take into account the individual needs of our investors in terms of earnings, taxation, and risk appetite. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of the future performance of a fund. Please note that investments in securities entail risks in addition to the opportunities presented here. The value of shares and their earnings can rise and fall. Changes in exchange rates can also have a positive or negative effect on the value of an investment. For this reason, you may receive less than your originally invested amount when you redeem your shares. Persons who are interested in purchasing shares in investment funds are advised to read the current fund prospectus(es) and the Information for Investors pursuant to § 21 AIFMG, especially the risk notices they contain, before making an investment decision.

Please consult the corresponding information in the fund prospectus and the Information for Investors pursuant to Art 21 AIFMG for restrictions on the sale of fund shares to American or Russian citizens. Misprints and errors excepted.

The public sale of shares in the specified fund in Germany was registered with the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, Bonn, pursuant to the German Kapitalanlagegesetzbuch (KAGB). The issue and redemption of unit certificates and the execution of payments to unit holders has been transferred to the Fund's custodian bank/depositary, Erste Group Bank AG, Am Belvedere 1, 1100 Vienna, Austria. Redemption requests can be submitted by investors to their custodian bank, which will forward them to the Custodian Bank/Depositary of the Fund for execution via the usual banking channels. All payments to investors are also processed via the usual banking clearing channel with the investor's custodian bank.. In Germany, the issue and return prices of shares are published in electronic form on the website www.erste-am.com (and also at www.fundinfo.com). Any other information for Shareholders is published in the Bundesanzeiger, Cologne.


It is expressly noted that presentations shall not be construed as providing investment advice or investment recommendations; presentations simply represent the current market opinion. The presentations are not intended as sales instruments and shall therefore not be construed as an offer to buy or sell financial or investment instruments. The investor shall be solely responsible for any and all decisions that he makes on the basis of this presentation.